Revenue ForecastingRevsure AIDec 2024 – PresentProduction

Forecast Explainability & SHAP Logging

Dual-algorithm explainability infrastructure — SHAP for tree models, coefficient contribution for linear models — with BigQuery logging.

Dual-Algorithm

Explainability Coverage

The Problem

Revenue leaders and customers couldn't understand why the forecast changed week-over-week. Black-box outputs eroded trust in the model.

What Was Built

Implemented dual-algorithm explainability: (1) SHAP TreeExplainer for XGBoost models with base value decomposition and Shapley value packaging. (2) Coefficient-based contribution for Ridge/linear models. Both produce human-readable feature display name mappings and marketing-vs-baseline contribution aggregations. All explanations logged to BigQuery for historical tracking and customer-facing dashboard widgets.

Business Impact

Made forecast outputs interpretable to non-technical revenue leaders, improving stakeholder trust and enabling data-driven forecast discussions.

Tech Stack

PythonSHAPTreeExplainerXGBoostRidgeBigQuery

Domain Tags

SHAPModel ExplainabilityShapley ValuesCoefficient ContributionRevenue Forecasting

Details

Role
Primary Owner
Status
Production
Tier
Tier 1
Period
Dec 2024 – Present
Employment
Revsure AI