Revenue Forecasting Platform
Production ML system predicting pipeline and booking outcomes at daily frequency across current and future quarters.
~52%
MAPE Reduction
4+
Quarter Horizons
Daily
Scoring Frequency
The Problem
Revenue teams at B2B SaaS companies needed reliable end-of-quarter pipeline and booking forecasts—starting from day one of the quarter—to drive planning, capacity allocation, and executive reporting. Simple heuristics couldn't capture seasonality, pacing dynamics, or macroeconomic context.
What Was Built
Built and evolved the core end-of-quarter (EOQ) forecasting system, growing it from a QTD-based heuristic into a multi-layer ML platform. The system produces daily forecasts across four quarter horizons using XGBoost with leakage-safe GroupShuffleSplit validation. Enhancements over 4 years include: time-decay and average-index adjustment layers, SHAP explainability with dual-algorithm contribution logging, and a configurable multi-model framework supporting 30+ parameters for algorithm selection, feature groups, and ensemble composition.
Business Impact
Reduced booking model MAPE by ~52% through forecast category feature engineering. System delivers daily pipeline and booking forecasts used by enterprise revenue teams for EOQ planning and boardroom reporting.
Tech Stack
Domain Tags
Details
- Role
- Primary Owner
- Status
- Production
- Tier
- Tier 1
- Period
- Apr 2022 – Present
- Employment
- ADA Asia → Revsure AI