Revenue ForecastingRevsure AIDec 2024 – PresentProduction
Average-Index Forecast Adjustment
Statistical fallback layer using day-of-quarter index averages when ML model signals are insufficient.
The Problem
Early in a quarter, ML models have limited QTD data to learn from. A statistically sound fallback was needed for low-data-quality early-quarter scenarios.
What Was Built
Built an average-index adjustment layer computing day-of-quarter historical indices (average pipeline completion percentage per day across prior quarters). Applied as a weighted fallback or blend with the ML forecast. Validated against real production data.
Business Impact
Improved early-quarter forecast stability and provided a robust statistical anchor validated against production pipeline data.
Tech Stack
Pythonscikit-learnBigQuery
Domain Tags
Statistical ForecastingAverage IndexEarly-Quarter StabilityRevenue Forecasting
Details
- Role
- Primary Owner
- Status
- Production
- Tier
- Tier 1
- Period
- Dec 2024 – Present
- Employment
- Revsure AI