Revenue ForecastingADA Asia2022 – 2024Production

Record Level Likelihood & Win Rate

ML-derived win rate methodology using per-record conversion likelihoods instead of binary counts for smoother, more accurate pipeline reporting.

The Problem

Standard win rate calculations used binary converted/not-converted counts, producing noisy rates with high variance. A smoother, probability-weighted method was needed.

What Was Built

Built a likelihood method computing win rates from ML-derived per-record conversion probabilities rather than binary outcomes. Enabled granular win rate reporting at the account, segment, and opportunity level.

Business Impact

Improved win rate metric accuracy and reduced variance in pipeline health reporting for GTM performance dashboards.

Tech Stack

PythonXGBoostBigQueryPySpark

Domain Tags

Win RateLikelihood MethodPipeline AnalyticsRevenue Metrics

Details

Role
Primary Owner
Status
Production
Tier
Tier 2
Period
2022 – 2024
Employment
ADA Asia