Propensity & ScoringADA AsiaApr 2022 – Dec 2024Production

Lead Propensity Model

Scores each lead's conversion likelihood across four quarter horizons (CQ/NQ/NQ+1/NQ+2) using engagement patterns and journey sequences.

4

Quarter Horizons Scored

Daily

Scoring Frequency

The Problem

Sales teams had large lead lists with no per-lead conversion likelihood ranking. Pipeline projections at the lead level used flat segment-level rates rather than individual characteristics.

What Was Built

XGBoost Classifier trained on lead attributes, activity/engagement patterns, journey sequences, funnel stage timestamps, and derived velocity metrics. Multi-quarter scoring: separate probability per quarter horizon. Feature selection via Feature Importance + Chi-squared + ANOVA F-test. Heuristic fallback for low-data customers using segment conversion rates.

Business Impact

Replaced flat conversion rates with ML-scored per-lead conversion likelihoods, feeding the Pipeline Projection Engine with more accurate record-level contributions.

Tech Stack

PythonXGBoostscikit-learnBigQuery

Domain Tags

Lead ScoringPropensity ModelingFunnel AnalyticsMulti-Horizon

Details

Role
Primary Owner
Status
Production
Tier
Tier 1
Period
Apr 2022 – Dec 2024
Employment
ADA Asia